How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets turn opinions into prices. Instead of asking “will this happen?”, you can trade on it — and the price reflects what the crowd thinks the probability is.
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How prediction markets work
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each market has a YES and NO price that reflect the crowd's estimated probability.
Buy YES shares if you think something will happen. Buy NO if you think it won't. If you're right, each share pays out $1. If you're wrong, you lose your bet.
The basics in 60 seconds
1. Markets are questions. Every prediction market is a yes/no question about the future. “Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2026?” or “Will it rain in Paris tomorrow?”
2. Prices are probabilities. If YES trades at 65¢, the market thinks there's a 65% chance it happens. If you disagree, you can trade.
3. Shares pay $1 if correct. Buy YES at 65¢ → if the event happens, your share pays $1 (profit: 35¢). If it doesn't happen, your share is worth $0 (loss: 65¢).
4. You can sell anytime. Don't want to wait for the outcome? Sell your shares back to the market at the current price. Prices move as new information arrives.
Ready to try for real?
Polymarket is the largest prediction market platform. You can start trading with as little as $1.
This page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction market trading involves risk — never trade more than you can afford to lose.